Potential Accession to the Revised WTO Government Procurement Agreement: The Cases of Egypt and Turkey, Centre for International Economics at Bilkent University in Ankara (Turkey); along with Sussex University (UK), Cairo University (Egypt) and TOBB University (Turkey)

Egypt and Turkey are not signatories to the WTO Agreement on Government Procurement. The purpose of this project studying the effects of potential accession of Egypt and Turkey to GPA is fourfold. First, we shall discuss within a comparative framework the minimum standards required under the GPA with those of Egyptian and Turkish Public Procurement Systems. Second, we shall analyze the major characteristics of public procurement markets in Egypt and Turkey. Third, we shall conduct an empirical study on how successful the GPA is in achieving its objectives of transparency, non-discrimination, and fair and predictable conditions of competition in government procurement markets. Lastly, we shall analyze the benefits and costs of accessing the GPA.

Emigrants selection and the modernization potential of transition economies : A comparative study of the MENA region over the period 2006-2013, IRES, UCLouvain (Belgium) ; with Middle East Technical University, Ankara (Turkey)

Human capital and cultural traits are two fundamental drivers of modernization and economic growth, as highlighted in the recent literature on growth accounting, on the determinants of technological diffusion across countries, and on the democracy transition. In this context, shocks that affect human capital accumulation and the distribution of cultural traits can have persistent effects on economic and political developments. This project takes advantage of a unique data set (the Gallup world polls) that includes information about individual characteristics, social norms and values, migration aspirations, perceived wellbeing, etc. We propose to use it to analyze the recent trends in emigration aspirations and selection (by education level and by cultural traits) in the MENA countries, and link them to the events that preceded or followed the Arab Spring.

L’objectif de cette contribution est de tester l’effet du plan d’action mis en œuvre par le gouvernement algérien en 2008 pour le développement de l’emploi et la lutte contre le chômage. Nous évaluons son effet sur l’emploi informel et le secteur informel. Nous menons notre test sur trois catégories d’occupés : les salariés, les nouveaux salariés et les indépendants. Pour les salariés, nous nous intéressons à l’effet sur l’enregistrement à la sécurité sociale et pour les indépendants nous nous focalisons sur l’enregistrement administratif et fiscal de l’activité. Une fois que l’effet est identifié, nous testons une éventuelle hétérogénéité selon les neuf régions prédéfinies par le Schéma National d’Aménagement du Territoire (SNAT), approuvé en 2010 comme un test de disparité spatiale.

Twin Deficits and the Sustainability of Macroeconomic Policies in Selected European and Mediterranean Partner Countries: Post Financial and Debt Crises, Institute of Financial Economics (Lebanon); with Kedge Business School (France)

This proposed research will attempt to assess the sustainability of the EU’s and MPs current fiscal and macroeconomic policies, and evaluate whether they are violating the inter-temporal budget and external constraints for the public sector. It will mainly address the following research question. How can the EU and MED countries in financial and debt crises curb macroeconomic imbalances (debt, budget and current account deficits, as well as, balance of payment deficits) when they have been experiencing a recession since the 2008 US financial crisis, with high unemployment rates, rising inflation rates, and rising social demands for inclusion?

La complexification des systèmes productifs comme vecteur de transition économique dans les MENA et le rôle des politiques de court terme. LEAD (Université de Toulon) (France) ; with Faculte des sciences economiques et de gestion de Sousse (Tunisia)

Les nouvelles contributions à la littérature sur la croissance économique ont fait valoir que la structure productive d’un pays, telle que mesurée par le niveau de complexité économique, reste un facteur décisif pour les différences de développement inter-pays et sont considérées être hautement prédictives de la croissance économique future. Toutefois, leurs déterminants au niveau des pays et leurs interdépendances spatiales entre les pays sont restés inconnus. Dans ce projet de recherche, nous étudierons d’une part empiriquement les principaux déterminants de la complexité économique à partir de la méthode de β-convergence conditionnelle. D’autre part, ce projet comporterait une étude de cas de 4 pays MENA (Algérie, Tunisie, Turquie et Emirats Arabes Unis), qui révèlerait l’effet significatif de la complexité économique sur la création d’emplois qualifiés à court terme.

Vulnérabilités du pilotage macroéconomique et méta-évaluation des programmes de réformes du FMI en période de transition politique : cas spécifique de la Tunisie et expériences comparées de l’Egypte, la Jordanie et le Maroc. Université de Tunis El Manar (Tunisia) ; with LEAD, Université de Toulon-Var (France)

Appliquée aux programmes de réformes achevés ou en cours d’implémentation par le FMI en Tunisie, cette proposition de recherche entend combler un déficit de connaissances relatif à la prise en compte des méta-évaluations des réformes, dont la grille d’analyse permettra d’identifier et d’analyser les facteurs clés de succès ou d’échecs des politiques menées. Ce faisant, et au niveau de sa partie économétrique, la proposition permettra aussi un apprentissage sur les expériences et scénarii comparés de réformes entreprises dans un échantillon raisonné de pays du printemps arabe incluant l’Egypte, la Jordanie et le Maroc durant la période de transition, pour mieux cerner leurs contextes particuliers, les contraintes de transposition des réformes d’un espace à un autre et les raisons qui expliquent leur réussite (ou leur échec) dans certains pays et pas dans d’autres.

Inequality and inclusive growth in the South Mediterranean region: Are education and innovation activities favoring firm performance and citizens’ wellbeing? Institute of International Economics (Spain) ; with American University in Cairo (Egypt)

The main aim of the project is twofold. On the one hand, it aims at analyzing the recent trends in inequality and wellbeing in selected Southern Mediterranean countries at the regional, country/firm and at the individual level. On the other hand, it aims at identifying and evaluating the potential factors that may trigger and favor more equalitarian distribution of income in the region, focusing in particular on the role played by educational policies, innovation and managerial education in explaining progress in the short run, as well as quantifying their relative importance. Moreover, a macro perspective is added to analyze the link between inequality and growth in the MENA region.

External and Internal imbalances in South Mediterranean countries : Challenges and Costs, October University (Egypt), European Institute, LSE (UK)

This study aims to provide a detailed analysis of the set of challenges that are affecting the stability and sustainability of external (im) balances of South Mediterranean Countries. It aims to do so, by exploring a number of inter linked questions, as follows : How are the South – MED countries dealing with their external / current account imbalances and why ? What/how austerity is implemented ; does it make sense in relation to the external positions of these countries ; and does it have high social costs / negative distributional effects ? If so, how are these effects mediated politically and through social policies ?

“Assessing the Macroeconomic and Welfare Effects of Universal Health Coverage (UHC): A Dynamic Microsimulation-based Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Applied to Algeria and Palestine”, GREQAM-AMSE Aix- Marseille University (France) ; with Research Center of Economic Applied for Development (CREAD) (Algeria) and Birzeit University (Palestine)

Universal Health Coverage (UHC) has recently been considered as a primary vehicle to fulfill all of the health-related goals in the newly adopted Social Development Goals (SDGs) (WHO 2015). While this reflects a strong commitment on the part of policy-makers to equity issues in health, achieving UHC requires an evaluation ex ante of its economic feasibility as well as its potential impact on social welfare. Indeed, it remains unclear whether (and to what extent) developing (low-and middle-income) countries can afford UHC (i.e., the economic feasibility) within the specified timespan of 2015-2030. Nonetheless, the potential welfare effects of such endeavor at both micro- and macro-level remain hitherto evidenceless.

This project aims at addressing these questions using an innovative epidemiological-demographic based dynamic micro-simulation method in a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) framework. Specifically, we propose to analyze the micro and macro-level effects of a gradual expansion of health insurance coverage under different demographic and epidemiological scenarios in the context of two developing countries: Algeria and Palestine.