Tag Archives: Climate change

FEMISE MED BRIEF no6 : The Importance of Reconciling South MED Countries positions on The Paris Agreement

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The FEMISE Policy Brief series MED BRIEF aspires to provide Forward Thinking for the EuroMediterranean region. The briefs contain succinct, policy-oriented analysis of relevant EuroMed issues, presenting the views of FEMISE researchers and collaborators to policy-makers. 

The sixth issue of MED BRIEF “The Importance of Reconciling South MED Countries positions on The Paris Agreement” is available by clicking here.

The Paris Agreement is a breakthrough in global efforts to address the threats of climate change. However, fulfilling the agreement requires countries to rapidly implement nationally determined contributions (NDCs), meet emissions reduction targets for 2020 and set future targets that are even more ambitious. This is far from a done deal for the South Mediterranean (MED) countries.

Constantin Tsakas (General Manager of Institut de la Méditerranée, General Secretary of FEMISE)

Constantin Tsakas (General Manager of Institut de la Méditerranée, General Secretary of FEMISE)

This MED Brief, by Dr. Constantin Tsakas (General Manager of Institut de la Méditerranée, General Secretary of FEMISE) argues that MED governments and stakeholders need to think about the various constraints on the effectiveness of the Paris Agreement, identify partners and practices that could complement the process more broadly. This brief alludes to the need of cooperation and collaboration between South Med countries themselves. Governments will need to develop a long-term plan on climate change and provide concrete steps to actually apply it. They need to deal better with domestic economic groups that contribute to the limited level of environmental reforms. Meanwhile, solutions shall always be made while considering the economic and social reality of MED countries.

 

The list of FEMISE MED BRIEFS is available here.

 

The policy brief has been produced with the financial assistance of the European Union within the context of the FEMISE program. The contents of this document are the sole responsibility of the authors and can under no circumstances be regarded as reflecting the position of the European Union.

FEMISE and IM at COP23, BONN 2017

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UPDATE 9/11/2017 (17h30)

Panelists at Pavillon C06 (ENERGIES2050), Zone Bonn.

In the joint session at COP23, FEMISE and Institut de la Méditerranée (IM) presented the preliminary version of the report “The challenges of climate change in a Mediterranean in transition – From the Paris agreement to implementation” published with ENERGIES2050.

After a brief presentation of IM and FEMISE activities, Dr. Constantin Tsakas (General Manager of Institut de la Méditerranée, General Secretary of FEMISE) highlighted how the report is part of an ongoing dynamic between ENERGIES2050, FEMISE and IM. As part of their partnership, the three associations produce an annually-updated report on climate issues in the Mediterranean, putting into perspective the economic realities of countries of the South bank and suggesting courses of action and policy recommendations. Annual updates allow for the report to be evolutive, integrating the exchanges with the civil society, private and public actors. The idea being to i. produce research that is policy relevant and which can lead to concrete solutions and ii. foster an ecosystem of EU-Med actors associated with Climate Change concerns to have impact at the macro, meso and micro levels. The powerpoint presentation of Dr. Tsakas is available here.

Regarding the Paris agreement, fulfilling it requires countries to rapidly implement nationally determined contributions (NDCs), meet emissions reduction targets for 2020 and set future targets that are even more ambitious. Dr Tsakas stressed that this is far from a done deal for the South Mediterranean (MED) countries as a whole, where a lot remains to be done to formulate the many rules and prerequisite procedures and to specify more clear-cut means of implementation.

Asked on which Med countries are ahead, Dr Tsakas stressed that research show countries like Morocco to be considerably ahead in terms of policies and actions towards climate change. Countries such as Algeria, Tunisia and Palestine, also seem to be willing to take valiant measures for mitigation adaptation to climate change. Others, seem to be reforming mostly on paper or facing reluctance from domestic economic interests.

Replying to questions as to what governments could do more effectively, Dr Tsakas stressed that MED governments and stakeholders need to think about the various constraints on the effectiveness of the Paris Agreement, identify partners and practices that could complement the process more broadly. They should stop developing their strategies in isolation and take into account that several MED-specific programs and institutions are already present to help in implementing climate-change policies. Governments will need to better map their threatened regions, dress a long-term plan on climate change and actually apply it. However, solutions shall always be taken in an integrated manner, considering the economic and social reality of MED countries after the Arab Spring and the situation of workers in energy-intensive industries.

Dr Tsakas invited participants to provide feedback as to their respective countries positions on the environment and share their concerns which could then be included in the finalized version of the report. This being an evolutive and dynamic process, Dr Tsakas stressed that the finalized report will be presented during a launch event organized by Institut de la Méditerranée in partnership with ENERGIES 2050 and FEMISE in Marseille (France, end of Q1 2018). During this event a ENERGIES2050 report on Territorialization of Climate Change Agreements will also be presented. Presenting the two complementary reports at the Marseille workshop will allow initiating debates between academics, the civil society and policymakers at the local level to go towards concrete solutions.

 

UPDATE 9/11/2017 (12h30)

FEMISE and Institut de la Méditerranée were invited by United Cities and Local Governments of Africa (UCLGA) and ENERGIES 2050 Association as discussants to the Session “Issues and Opportunities for the Territorialization of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in Africa” (11H00 – 12H30 – PAVILION ENERGIES 2050 CGLUA AND DING TAI CO., LTD. – ZONE BONN).

In his speech, Dr. Constantin Tsakas (GM Institut de la Méditerranée, GS FEMISE) emphasized how the biodiversity of the Mediterranean and Africa is threatened by climate change. The increase in temperatures could lead to a decrease in tourist demand in coastal areas by almost 6% in some countries. Difficulties of access to water resources are also increasing in some territories. In addition, climate change would also affect local agriculture through its effect on crop yields.

Dr. Tsakas emphasized that territorialisation of climate agreements is necessary by setting the objectives of the agreements at the level of communities and territories. An attenuation component would help to control energy demand and reduce CO2 emissions. An adaptation component would reduce the vulnerability of the territory. There is a need to move towards policies that go beyond sectoral decompartmentalisation and which can involve more local and regional policy-makers, entrepreneurs and representatives of civil society. The ENERGIES2050-UCLGA Report on the Territorialization of NDCs could be an ideal springboard for initiating the debate.

This report is complementary to the ENERGIES2050-IM-FEMISE report on “The challenges of climate change in a Mediterranean in transition” presented in a future session. Both are part of a dynamic to allow the emergence of a real ecosystem on issues related to climate change.

8/11/2017

Stéphane Pouffary (ENERGIES2050), Gaelle Yomi (CGLU Afrique) and Constantin Tsakas (Institut de la Méditerranée and FEMISE)

FEMISE and IM were today’s special guest speakers at the FRANCE COP23 Pavilion (16h-17h), along with our partners ENERGIES2050 and CGLU Afrique. Many thanks to FRANCE Pavilion and our partners ENERGIES2050 for a constructing debate !

Now, join us tomorrow Thursday, November 9th, 13:00-14: 30, for the IM-FEMISE session at COP23 presenting the preliminary version of the report “The challenges of climate change in a Mediterranean in transition – From the Paris agreement to implementation” that we publish with ENERGIES2050 (last year’s edition here). The presentation will take place at Pavilion C06 (ENERGIES2050), Bonn Zone. Come join us!

Pavillon C06 (ENERGIES2050), Zone Bonn.

For the pre-COP23 interview of Dr. Constantin Tsakas, click here.

Moreover, on the occasion of the COP23, we invite you to rediscover the FEMISE publications on the theme “Environment, energy, climate change” by clicking here.

Finally, we invite you to rediscover the MED2012 Report on Green Growth in the Mediterranean, a flagship report in which the experts from Institut de la Méditerranée and FEMISE participated. This report addressed the issue of how green growth can achieve sustainable development by enhancing the productivity of natural assets while preventing the negative social consequences of Environment degradation, notably in terms of the fundamental issue of employment.  It is available here.

COP23 and climate change in the Mediterranean: Institut de la Méditerranée and FEMISE stand out as key academic actors

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In the Mediterranean, the effects of climate change will always be felt more than elsewhere. Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation needs of riparian countries are more than ever necessary.

Committed actors for the implementation of sustainable development in the Euro-Mediterranean area, Institut de la Méditerranée and FEMISE have been collaborating during the last two years with association ENERGIES 2050 on climate-related, environmental and energy issues. As part of their partnership, the three associations produce an annually-updated report on climate issues in the Mediterranean, putting into perspective the economic realities of countries of the South bank and suggesting courses of action and policy recommendations. The 2016 edition of the report, directed by ENERGIES2050, was presented at COP22 in Marrakech (available for download by clicking here). A preliminary draft of the forthcoming edition (2017/18), co-directed by the three partners, will be presented at a joint workshop during COP23 (Bonn, November 9th 2017) in order to integrate discussions with actors present during the COP23 summit. The entire ENERGIES 2050 program at COP23 in Bonn, including the joint workshop with Institut de la Méditerranée and FEMISE, is available by clicking here.

General Manager of Institut de la Méditerranée and General Secretary of FEMISE, Dr. Constantin Tsakas offers some lines of thought for the future.

What will be the added value of the 2017 edition of the Climate report ?

This edition will further explore the progress made by Southern Mediterranean Partner Countries (MPCs) in addressing the threats of climate change. More specifically, this new report will position them vis-à-vis the Paris Agreement.

As you may know, the latter commits all signatories to contain global warming “well below 2 ° C compared to pre-industrial levels”, to achieve carbon neutrality, to cooperate in strengthening a “climate change education”. Its open and evolving nature reinforces commitments to mitigate the effects of climate change over time. The 2017 edition of the report will therefore make possible to better evaluate the coherence of MPC’s past and present mitigation and adaptation actions.

How are MPCs positioned internationally in terms of mitigation and adaptation efforts?

Dr. Constantin Tsakas, General Manager of IM and General Secretary of FEMISE

Countries like Morocco are clearly ahead in terms of policies and actions. Morocco was one of the first countries in the region to sign and ratify the Paris Agreement. But even before that date, the country had already put in place specific legislation on the protection and conservation of the environment, on the fight against air pollution and on environmental impact assessment. In addition, in 2008 the government implemented the “Green Plan for Morocco” which represented a long-term policy (2008-2020) that put emphasis on a more sustainable agricultural sector. Other countries, such as Tunisia, are lagging behind but seem to show some willingness in moving forward. Before ratifying the Paris Agreement (March 2017), the Tunisian government took initiatives to limit the effects of climate change at the national level. In terms of legislation, Tunisia was actually one of the few countries to recognize climate change in its Constitution.

That being said, many countries seem to be reforming mainly on paper or to be facing reluctance related to already established economic interests. The Paris Agreement and environmental protection laws are often perceived as barriers to economic activity and political regimes are reluctant to adopt pro-environmental reforms. In general, there is a clear difference between what has been agreed and the results obtained. There is also little cooperation between Mediterranean countries during major summits, which means that even if national initiatives might exist they are doomed to fail as they do not translate into significant regional response.

What is the answer to MPC’s lack of coordination on environmental policy?

Several programs and institutions operating in the Mediterranean already exist to assist MPCs in the process of implementing climate change mitigation and awareness policies. The Union for the Mediterranean offers a general vision for low carbon development. The United Nations Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment and Coastal Regions of the Mediterranean (Barcelona Convention) provides a legal and institutional framework for concerted action among Mediterranean countries. Mediterranean networks of experts (FEMISE, MedECC, ANIMA, Plan Bleu) can also be mobilized and act as bridges between the scientific community and MPCs policy makers as they have considerable dissemination potential of politically relevant studies. Finally, there are Funds active in the region that can significantly support the implementation of climate-related projects.

What would you like to accomplish with the presence of Institut de la Méditerranée and FEMISE at COP23?

The presence of Institut de la Méditerranée and FEMISE at COP23, made possible thanks to our partnership with ENERGIES 2050, will allow us to interact with civil society actors, representatives of the public and private sectors and territorial experts present at the COP23 summit. These discussions between academics and operators of all kinds will provide feedback on the exceptional opportunities that the environment presents in terms of growth, investment, job creation and social cohesion. The debates will therefore enrich the report that we will co-publish with our partner ENERGIES 2050.

Following COP23, the 2017-2018 edition of the report “The Challenges of Climate Change in a Mediterranean in Transition – from the Paris Agreement to Implementation” will thus be finalized and presented during a launch event organized by Institut de la Méditerranée in partnership with ENERGIES 2050 and FEMISE (in Marseille, France, end of Q1 2018). Likewise, a discussion around the conclusions of the report with the territorial actors of Marseille will allow them to communicate on their environmental policies. Some of their recommendations could then be illustrated in the context of the 2019 edition in a process that remains evolving. The Marseille workshop will also illustrate the dynamics generated by our three associations and allow presenting the latest research produced from our respective networks on climate issues.

 

Interviewed by FEMISE Staff

 

The Economic Impact of Climate Change on Southern Mediterranean Countries

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img_2461Interview with Dr. Abeer EL-SHINNAWY (FEMISE, American University in Cairo) within the context of the FEMISE & Institut de la Méditerranée contribution to the ENERGIES2050 report [1] on” Challenges to Climate Change in the Mediterranean” released at the occasion of the international COP22 conference that took place in Marrakech on November 15th 2016.

 

The report (in French) is available for download by clicking here.

How vulnerable are Mediterranean countries to climate change and why?

The Southern Mediterranean countries are considered as particularly vulnerable to the impact of climate change. This is mainly due to their geographical position and their dependence on climate sensitive sectors like agriculture and tourism. On the other hand, rising sea level is expected to endanger the lively hood of millions living in coastal areas of the Mediterranean sea. This is why assessment of the economic cost of climate change and planning for timely adaptation to climate change is imperative.

You gave the example of agriculture and tourism, can you give an assessment of costs of climate change as they pertain to these two sectors?

With regards to agriculture, climate change affects the sector mainly through its effect on crop yields. For instance, wheat yields could fall up to -5.7% in Tunisia and -7.3% in Morocco under changing climatic conditions by 2050. But one must not only look at the effect of local climate change on the economy of a particular country, but also the effect of global warming on global yields and its impact on world food prices and in turn how this impacts the local economy.

As for tourism, it is expected to be adversely affected by a warmer climate. By 2050, an estimated 1.9% increase in temperature is expected to decrease tourism demand in coastal areas in Morocco by 6% assuming no adaptation policies are implemented (and by 2% in Tunisia).

But perhaps the most damaging effect of climate change in the region will be most felt due to rising sea level. In the event of rising sea level, coastal cities in Egypt and Turkey will be threatened, Istanbul in particular.

Are there any benefits that Mediterranean countries can derive from climate change ?

Indeed, some benefits can very well materialize. Mitigating climate change can have local benefits that can lead higher economic growth. Put differently, by promoting what has come to be known as green growth, mitigation can lead to local benefits. It is possible to make growth more resource efficient, cleaner and more resilient without necessarily slowing it. In this respect, several channels through which a better natural environment can affect economic growth can be identified. These channels range from increasing the quality of factors of production; increasing resilience to environmental shocks; increasing the job content and poverty eradication features of economic growth etc…

Are there specific examples of sectors in the Mediterranean that can grasp opportunities linked to climate change?

Opportunities are not confined to any particular sector, but manufacturing, finance and insurance, construction and professional, scientific and technical activities stand out. In the case of manufacturing, products to support agriculture- example fertilizers and pesticides whose demand is likely to increase as a result of climate change- and health care provide opportunities. For Finance and insurance, opportunities include new products and services and insurance premium price as insurance permits individuals and companies to pool risk. On the other hand, demand for climate resilient homes provides an impetus to the growth of the construction sector.

What can Mediterranean countries do to stop climate change? What Policies and what Actions?  

To stop climate change, Mediterranean countries need to cut back on their emissions of GHG, in great part through reduction in the consumption of fossil fuels. In countries such as Egypt, removing subsidies on energy could be part of policies to achieve this objective.

What can be done at the EuroMed level that is not already being done?

In general, Mediterranean countries need to diversify more and not be solely dependent on climate sensitive sectors like agriculture and tourism. Most importantly, these countries must inform their citizens of the repercussions of climate change for their livelihood so that they start investigating possible adaptation measures. In particular, and in response to the potential threat of rising sealevels, countries could consider that investment in coastal areas comes to a hault. In this regard, evidence so far points that citizens are unaware of such problems and in countries like Egypt, they continue to undertake important investments in potentially dangerous areas.

More importantly, institutional cooperation between North and South Mediterranean countries is most needed to implement and enforce policies that cut back on GHG. It is needless to mention that the lack of efficient institutions to design and implement policies to cut back on GHG and the lack of design adaptation measures are considered one of the most important bottlenecks these countries are facing as they confront climate change.

For more on this timely subject, please read the report available here.

The FEMISE Team

[1] ENERGIES2050 is a french association based in Nice (France). It seeks, in particular, to promote and encourage containing energy demand: energy saving, energy efficiency and the development of renewable energies. FEMISE and Institut de la Méditerranée have partnered with this important partner in the field of climate change to have an additional channel to contribute in meeting the challenges the EuroMed region is facing and reaching out to policy-makers.

The Challenges of Climate Change in the Mediterranean

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Taking the environment into account in economic and political decisions, in particular considering the development of renewable energies, is a major challenge for the future of the world and of course for the Mediterranean.

Institut de la Méditerranée (IM) and FEMISE contributed by writing a chapter for the ENERGIES 2050 report on climate change in the Mediterranean which was presented at the COP22 in Marrakech on November 15th 2016.

The chapter in question is Chapter II « La région Sud-Med post-Printemps Arabes et les potentiels pour l’environnement » the main author being Dr. Constantin TSAKAS (General Manager of Institut de la Méditerranée, General Secretary of FEMISE) with contributions by Dr Maryse LOUIS (General Manager of FEMISE, Programs Manager ERF) and Dr. Abeer EL-SHINNAWY (FEMISE, American University in Cairo).

The report (in French) allows to carry out a more detailed analysis of key sustainable development issues in the Mediterranean basin and is available for download by clicking here.

The South Med Countries facing the environmental challenges

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By: Dr. Constantin TSAKAS, General Manager of Institut de la Méditerranée, General Secretary of FEMISE, and main author of the chapter on “The South-Med region post-Arab Spring and the economic potentials linked to the environment” of the ENERGIES2050 report[1] on” Challenges to Climate Change in the Mediterranean” released at the occasion of the international COP22 conference that took place in Marrakech on November 15th 2016.

Institut de la Méditerranée (IM) and FEMISE contributed by writing a chapter for the ENERGIES 2050 report on climate change in the Mediterranean which was presented at the COP22 in Marrakech on November 15th 2016. This article presents some of the chapters’ findings.

The report (in French) is available for download by clicking here.

 

Some progress, but opportunities still to be grasped…

Taking the environment into account in economic and political decisions, in particular considering the development of renewable energies, is a major challenge for the future of the world and of course for the Mediterranean.

tsakas-environment-r

Dr. Constantin TSAKAS (GM Institut de la Méditerranée, GS FEMISE)

The South Mediterranean countries have made some progress in terms of Energy Efficiency (EE) and renewable energies (RE) but many opportunities are still to be captured in order to catch up with the rest of the world. In the mid-2000s, the share of RE (hydro, wind, solar, geothermal) in primary energy consumption was already well below the threshold required to achieve the objectives of the Mediterranean Strategy for Sustainable Development (MSSD) (the hope was to reach 7% by 2015).

Unfortunately, between 2000 and 2014, an annual growth in primary energy intensity for MPs such as Egypt (+ 0.8%), Algeria (+ 0.9%) and Libya (+2,6%) was recorded, suggesting that these economies remain increasingly energy-intensive relative to their level of GDP. However, countries such as Jordan (-1.4%) and Lebanon (-1.5%) seem to be better off, approaching the EU’s performance in terms of Energy intensity.

The Arab Spring and what it means for the region’s environmental progress

The Arab Spring created new challenges that the region has to face, which meant that the promotion of the environment and renewable energies had dropped a few places in these countries’ priority agenda. Despite this, renewable energies remain a rather stable sector for investment in the region and have not considerably weakened following the revolutions. Between 2006 and 2015, estimates show that the region represents € 7.3 billion in FDI for a total of 144 projects (as recorded by the ANIMA-MIPO observatory) for an average project size of € 50.7 million. Despite such stability these figures are still low, especially considering that Tunisia’s GDP alone accounts for US $ 47 billion in 2013.

It should be noted, however, that the year 2015 was one of the most important in recent years in terms of FDI-projects announced. This is mainly due to major initiatives by firms from the United Arab Emirates and Europe, which are relaunching projects of several hundred million euros, notably in photovoltaics and wind power, most particularly in Egypt.

The Green Economy in the Southern Mediterranean

The green economy can produce significant economic impacts in terms of production (direct and induced) and job creation. For example, a FEMISE (2013) study estimated that a CSP (Concentrated Solar Plants) industry in Morocco could have an overall impact on Moroccan GDP of 1.27% to 1.77% by 2050, creating more than 200,000 jobs.

But many barriers persist, notably regarding the lack of international or local financial resources, combined with a high-risk premium. In addition, political barriers are significant and the lack / instability of the fiscal and legislative framework for the development of CSPs is still being felt.

Ways forward and recommendations for the South Med

Governments of the South Med countries should consider becoming true partners that co-construct the ecological interest based on local actors, paving the way for a green economy. Multiplying territorial agreements between the State and local territories on actions that promote sustainable development would give an impetus that allows consolidating a framework of multilevel governance.

logo-cop22-919x650In addition, the State could be more supportive of environmentally sustainable projects that meet the real needs of territories that present environmental risks. Territorial diagnoses would be necessary to make territories an “axis of a reorientation of the economy towards local sustainable development”. These diagnoses could lead to territorial recovery pacts that unite all actors that participate in the sustainable development of territories / regions.

In addition to these policy recommendations, it bodes down to having an orientation that allows exploiting opportunities in the private sector. These opportunities are not limited to a particular sector, but manufacturing, finance and insurance, construction and professional, scientific and technical activities can clearly benefit.

Finally, MPs should exploit their strengths in terms of EE and RE, such as high solar potential (irradiation), low costs of unskilled labor, an emerging local industry and the fact that for Europe the development of the green economy in the Mediterranean (eg the solar industry) would be a true value added.

 [1] ENERGIES2050 is a french association based in Nice (France). It seeks, in particular, to promote and encourage containing energy demand: energy saving, energy efficiency and the development of renewable energies. FEMISE and Institut de la Méditerranée have partnered with this important partner in the field of climate change to have an additional channel to contribute in meeting the challenges the EuroMed region is facing and reaching out to policy-makers.

When the Weather affects the economy

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FEM34-23Regular flooding, heatwaves and droughts have an impact on farming and production. This will eventually cause investment to dry up and will have a major impact on consumption as commodity prices inevitably soar. Femise researchers have published a study (FEM34-23) measuring the effects of climate change in Egypt in 2050.

If no action is taken, climate change will reduce Egypt’s GDP by as much as 10% in that year. This shows just how important it is for the economy. Climate change is not just about rising temperatures and higher rainfall; increasingly extreme events must also be taken into account. Storms, heatwaves and floods have a devastating effect.

Sherman Robinson and Dirk Willenbockel, two experts working respectively in the US and the UK, joined together with Abeer Elshennawy, a professor at the American University in Cairo and coordinator of the Femise study (FEM34-23 ) entitled “Climate Change and Economic Growth: An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Analysis for Egypt”.

They endeavoured to predict climate change in Egypt by studying several scenarios.

Measures to ward off the effects of climate change

Temperatures rose by between 3°C and 3.5°C between 1960 and 1990, and they are expected to increase by another 2°C by 2050. The country’s tourist industry is likely to suffer from this, but many other sectors will also be affected. There could be significant damage to farming, which is particularly vulnerable to deviations in temperature and rainfall.

Egypt felt the full force of climate change during the heatwave of 2010. The country’s farms, which are concentrated in the Nile valley and delta, were hit hard, resulting in a sharp increase in prices. Agricultural productivity is a certain casualty of rising temperatures.

The experts also highlighted the impact of power cuts on production systems, and particularly on refrigeration systems.

This is something that could eventually put investors off. How can you envisage installing a steelworks, a cement works or a glassworks without a continuous power supply? The economists at Femise believe that rising electricity costs will have a knock-on effect on production costs.

As well as the impact on consumption and investment, we must also consider property depreciation, particularly in coastal areas, as a direct result of rising sea levels.
The Femise study recommends quickly implementing measures, such as making irrigation systems more efficient and providing better protection for coastal and plantation areas, to mitigate the impact of climate change.

These first few steps alone would enable Egypt to restrict its GDP loss in 2050 to 4%.

Photo: The High Dam in Egypt (Sad el Aali) by  Michel Guilly- Article by Nathalie Bureau du Colombier, Econostrum. www.econostrum.info.

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